Thursday, June 24, 2010

Spread sheet exlpanation

The rating sheet is self explanatory. However, a simple explanation of the rating spreadsheet:

Season The corresponding season in which the horse ran
Date: The date on which the horse ran in that run
R #: The race number
Fin: Finishing position of the horse
Class: The class it ran in
Name: Name of the horse
R: Rating of the horse
Wt: Weight carried
Eq: Equipment on the horse for that run
Dist: Distance it ran
Tr/W/2H: Indicates Trainer/Winner/2nd horse
Jockey: The jockey who rode it in that run
Time: The finishing time of the horse for that particular run, indicated in seconds multiplied by 100. This is for my computation purposes only
Beyer: The Beyer Speed number it attained for that particular run & the likely Beyer it is capable of.

How to read the sheet:

The whole idea of creating Beyers is to to compare horses who run over different surfaces (fast tracks, slow tracks, etc.) and different distances. The numbers below the header "Beyer" indicates the speed figure a horse did for a particular run, & is likely to do for all distances. Any higher Beyer number is an indication of the horse's superiority over the other runners . However, one needs to be careful of horses who suddenly prop up & do a higher figure which may not be practical. In speed handicapping, this is termed as a bounce unless the horse repeats that number again. If it doesn't, we should not be considering it for future purposes. Horses which show consistency in Beyer numbers generally do well. As far as distances are concerned, theoretically, if a horse does a 80 over a 1200m, it has to do a 80 over a 1600mtr race. Whether a horse can stay the distance or not cannot be determined through Beyers, the horse's pedigree should indicate the same.

Wire to wire horses: These are a major contribution to upsets in any race. Make note of horses who are likely front runners for a distance with good Beyer numbers.

The creation or computation of Beyer Speed figures is a laborious and time consuming process. I have chosen to sort the runs of the horses chronologically, but from the newest run to the oldest run. Generally, the Beyer a horse does in the last two to three runs is to considered.

The reason i have listed more than that is to look for horses which might be hiding true form. Horses of trainers like Lokanath, Amit Caddy, Sharat Kumar, etc at Bangalore are known to be gambling stables. This is help us determine if that horse is capable of attaining a higher number to beat the field. For instance, let us consider Race number 80, on the 20th June 2010, in which trainer Amit Caddy's entered his "Bid for Glory" in a 1400 mtr race. The last few runs (in higher class) do not indicate the true capability of the horse. If you look back a couple of seasons, to be precise, it has won a 20 to 45 (4yo & up) on the 7th of June 2009, race carrying a similar weight in the similar class beating a horse called Express it, where it did a higher number as compared to the field running today. He was entered in the same race after a few listless runs. The tracks were suggestive of the horse being tried & so was the outcome of the race.

The degree to which Beyers work in India cannot be estimated. I guess it is directly proportional to the degree of fairness in racing. From my experience, i can say is beyers work very well for centres like Mumbai & Pune & very surprisingly, Kolkata.

Beyers alone do not assure that a horse is likely to do well. There are a lot of other factors that need to be considered like the readiness of the horse as indicated in the morning tracks, pedigree, the trainer, the jockey, the running style of the horse, the racing conditions, track bias etc..

A more few links on Beyer Speed Figures:
DRF - Beyer Speed

8 comments:

  1. dear sir thankyou very much you are given the details for worksheet.regards NSK

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  2. hi all,
    if any of you require further explanation, then please feel free to ask any questions pertaining to this and we shall be happy to explain.
    regards,
    rb.

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  3. Hi,

    Nice effort.I was wondering y u were not taking Penetrometer reading in contention in sheets..Does it not affect timings? Please do let me know.

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  4. hi vinodbhai,
    long time since we spoke. i will call you today and catch up.
    as regards your query about the penetrometre, it is of no relevance to the numbers that we make.
    this is because we consider the track condition in form of a variant which is incorporated into the performance.
    therefore indirectly the penetrometre reading is considered and does not need to be looked into seperately as far as the numbers are concerned.
    additionally, the penetrometre reading could be helpful only in one aspect and that is to judge which horses do well in soft going or hard going as compared to the others in the race.
    hope this answers your query.
    you can call me and ask any query that you may have.
    regards,
    rb.

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  5. Thank you for visiting littlepunter.blogspot.com
    hope all of you help each other.

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  6. Hi with regard to bayers rating what ki9nd of rating should be considered for picking a winner a higher rating or a consistant rating

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  7. which coloum of ur blog should be considered to understand what is ur choice if beyers is the coloum how to understand it ?

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  8. Dear sir,
    May god bless you with a bright future in racing. I really, appreciate the pain taken by you to generate this sheet and also to explain the same to the followers. I honestly tell that I havee been benefitted by your sheet. I do have some doubts to get cleared,so please give me your phone number and also ideal time to call you.
    with regards,
    A.K
    plz contact me to: pink_katrina@rediffmail.com

    ReplyDelete