Beyer Numbers explained with Examples

I have been receiving a lot of queries asking me to explain the nature of the Beyer numbers & how to pick horses from the spreadsheet. A horse with superior numbers in its last 2 - 3 runs boasts of good current form, as compared to the others in the field.

I'm taking a few examples of the races held at Hyderabad, December 13, 2010. The spreadsheet can be accessed here

In the the second race, lets look at the numbers of Golden Queen. It earned a 98 in its last run, 92 before that & 96 before. If one were to look at the the entire field, there is no one doing these numbers in their last few starts & with such consistency. Now lets look at who could be the actual threat to Golden Queen. Arabian Dancer is terribly out of form, the tracks are not that suggestive of any improvement. Chiquelle can at best do an 85, but again he has ran below par in her last few starts. Indian Storm seems to be good to do the 70s or 80s. Pleasing Display is all over, not showing any consistency. Suchiman, again can at best do an 80, she did a 98 behind Celestial Way, but has never gone on to repeat that. I would consider that number as a bounce. Winning Strides seems to have good form, however is going over a distance he has never ventured into is last 6 starts. Dream Deal did an 87 in its last run, which was probably its best run ever, which is not enough to match strides with Golden Queen. Golden Queen has impeccable credentials & she was justifiably quoted at 10/7 on. She went on to win the race from Dream Deal by a margin of 4 lengths.

Lets take another example, the 5th race, a handicap for horses rated upto 75, distance 1200m. Bernado is running a class down, but his numbers do not indicate any current form. He has been consistent doing 65-70 in his last few starts. But is that enough to take on the field? One in all is in inconsistent form, but has twice earned above 80 in his last three starts. In the past, we can see that he is capable of doing that number. Copertina has very good credentials going by its old form, however, seems to have lost it, & also it seems as though this is not the ideal distance suited for her. Yippee earned a 93 in its last run, a 77 in its last but one. In the past we can also see he is capable of doing a 90 from the numbers. Cheeta Hi Jeeta's best numbers are around 70, so is True Fashion & Standing ovation, who seems to be digressing with each of its last 3 runs. So, if Yippee were to repeat that 93 he did in its last run, this race is in its safe keeping. He was quoted at 9/4 & surprisingly, Bernado recieved a lot of support in the ring, was backed down from 5/1 to 7/2 & Copertina was steady at around 6/1. Yippee went on to win this event by a norrowing margin of 3/4 lenghts from Copertina. The superior One in All filled the frame, paid a good 3/2 in place.

Let us consider the last race of the day, a handicap for horses rated upto 75.5yo & over. Hari Har Priya's numbers do not warrant anything, so she is best alone until she shows any kind of form. Ultra Violet Ray earned an 81 in its last run & an 80 when it 3 runs back. So her best number seems to be around 80. Prohibition has been non performing for the last few runs. Golden Flame has earned an 82 & 81 in its last 2 runs, seems to be in good form. He is better of on handicap as compared to Ultra Violet Ray. Also, if one has watched the race, Golden Flame received atleast 2 checks & wast the best moving animal. Now a good jockey astride, seems to have a better chance. Accordion has earned a 83 in its last run, 66 & 71 in the other 2 previous starts. She can pose a threat here, however, the jockey is a big question mark. Splendid Scot has developed the habit of breaking out slow from the gates, form is awful, but for that has been superior numbers last winter season,so can be a threat if he breaks level. The trainer has given him a couple of good gate practices indicating his willingness to try the horse. But is he reliable on that count? In my opinion, not until he breaks level from the gates. Indian Archer seems to be very inconsistent & Smarty Prince's best numbers do not account for more that 74. Golden Flame was quoted at 5/2 & Splendid Scot was spiritedly backed down from 4/1 to 3/1. As the gates opened, Splendid Scot was slow by atleast 6 lengths. Golden Flame went on to win the race by Prohibition & the tired Splendid Scot.

Its very important to look at the numbers of the last 3-4 runs of the horses, which invariable indicate the form of the horse. Also, a few other factors while choosing numbers could be distance, say, a horse's numbers might be good for shorter distances but may digress if it goes over longer distances. If the horse switches back to its distance it does its best numbers, the same should be considered. Tracks are suggestive of an horse coming back to old form, but it is best advisable to leave such animal alone until it translates the same on race track. Tracks are also suggestive of a horse's fitness, but a average horse with a blazing track is never an indication of its superiority over a horse with superior numbers. Trainer record is one very important factor while considering such animals, for that matter, any animal. A good trainer will always capitalize on the current form of his horse, leave alone the ones who have gambling instincts. Odds are a very important factor in Indian racing, in the sense that they are an indication whether the horse is a jobber or not, more often than not, especially with gambling stables. On the contrary, we may notice that many a times, a horse may win even if the odds on a favorite of a good trainer drifts. So it is important to study such trainer patterns to determine when to wager & when to not.

Beyers are very suggestive in playing exotics. A detailed explanation on this will be done later. I will be quoting a few more examples from other centres in the days to come. Your questions, comments, criticism & suggestions are always welcome.